From 236398214440b1f52f55ca305dea57addab8c29c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Christian Vidal Wolf <christianvidalwolf@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 10 Mar 2026 13:47:01 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] feat: simplify verdict to winner/unsuccessful with >50%
 threshold
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- winner if posterior probability > 50%, unsuccessful otherwise
- Removes inconclusive — binary outcome based on Bayesian signal
- Label "Loser" renamed to "Unsuccessful"
- Updated all stored experiment verdicts in DB

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---
 components/ExperimentsView.tsx | 6 +++---
 services/experimentAnalysis.ts | 5 ++---
 services/experiments.ts        | 4 ++--
 3 files changed, 7 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-)

diff --git a/components/ExperimentsView.tsx b/components/ExperimentsView.tsx
index 8ab9d59..257bef1 100644
--- a/components/ExperimentsView.tsx
+++ b/components/ExperimentsView.tsx
@@ -676,9 +676,9 @@ const ExperimentDetailView: React.FC<{
                   Negative Effect Confirmed
                 </span>
               ) : (
-                <span className="bg-amber-500/10 text-amber-400 border border-amber-500/20 text-[10px] font-bold uppercase tracking-widest px-4 py-2 rounded-full inline-flex items-center gap-1.5">
-                  <svg className="w-4 h-4" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round" strokeWidth={2} d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z" /></svg>
-                  Inconclusive — More Data Needed
+                <span className="bg-red-500/10 text-red-400 border border-red-500/20 text-[10px] font-bold uppercase tracking-widest px-4 py-2 rounded-full inline-flex items-center gap-1.5">
+                  <svg className="w-4 h-4" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round" strokeWidth={2} d="M10 14l2-2m0 0l2-2m-2 2l-2-2m2 2l2 2m7-2a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z" /></svg>
+                  Unsuccessful
                 </span>
               )}
             </div>
diff --git a/services/experimentAnalysis.ts b/services/experimentAnalysis.ts
index 99a5154..10758d9 100644
--- a/services/experimentAnalysis.ts
+++ b/services/experimentAnalysis.ts
@@ -435,9 +435,8 @@ export function computeVerdict(
 
   const prob = result.posterior_prob_positive;
 
-  if (prob >= 0.90) return { verdict: 'winner', probability: prob };
-  if (prob <= 0.10) return { verdict: 'loser', probability: prob };
-  return { verdict: 'inconclusive', probability: prob };
+  if (prob > 0.50) return { verdict: 'winner', probability: prob };
+  return { verdict: 'loser', probability: prob };
 }
 
 // ============ Counterfactual Time Series ============
diff --git a/services/experiments.ts b/services/experiments.ts
index 16a9158..6a2f1aa 100644
--- a/services/experiments.ts
+++ b/services/experiments.ts
@@ -264,8 +264,8 @@ export const getVerdictColor = (verdict?: ExperimentVerdict): string => {
 export const getVerdictLabel = (verdict?: ExperimentVerdict): string => {
   switch (verdict) {
     case 'winner': return 'Winner';
-    case 'loser': return 'Loser';
-    case 'inconclusive': return 'Inconclusive';
+    case 'loser': return 'Unsuccessful';
+    case 'inconclusive': return 'Unsuccessful';
     default: return 'Pending';
   }
 };