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Forecast View: Hybrid UK/Pan-EU seasonality weighting for Jan-Aug

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Christian Vidal Wolf
2026-01-27 09:49:35 +01:00
parent d496073e88
commit f8c6ecdf29
2 changed files with 54 additions and 13 deletions
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services/dataProcessor.ts
+48 -7
View File
@@ -1523,12 +1523,13 @@ export const processForecastExcel = async (fileOrBuffer: File | ArrayBuffer): Pr
export const calculateForecastViewData = (
rawData: SalesRecord[],
forecastData: ForecastRecord[],
asinMetadata: Map<string, { sku: string; title: string; line: string }>
asinMetadata: Map<string, { sku: string; title: string; line: string }>,
filters?: FilterState
): ProductForecastData[] => {
const data2025 = rawData.filter(r => r.year === 2025);
const data2026 = rawData.filter(r => r.year === 2026);
// Calculate Global Seasonality weights for 2025
// Calculate Seasonality weights for 2025
const getWeights = (records: SalesRecord[]) => {
const weights = new Array(12).fill(0);
let total = 0;
@@ -1544,7 +1545,37 @@ export const calculateForecastViewData = (
return weights.map(w => w / total);
};
const globalWeights = getWeights(data2025);
// 1. Determine Global/Default Weights
const panEuData2025 = data2025.filter(r => PAN_EU_COUNTRIES.includes(r.customer));
const panEuWeights = getWeights(panEuData2025);
// Check if we are in UK-only mode
const isUkOnly = filters?.customer?.includes('Amazon UK') && filters.customer.length === 1;
const getHybridWeights = (paEuRecords: SalesRecord[], ukRecords: SalesRecord[]) => {
const peWeights = getWeights(paEuRecords);
const ukWeights = getWeights(ukRecords);
// Blend: Jan-Aug from Pan-EU, Sep-Dec from UK
const hybrid = new Array(12).fill(0);
const hasUkHistory = ukRecords.length > 0;
for (let i = 0; i < 12; i++) {
if (i < 8) { // Jan-Aug
hybrid[i] = peWeights[i];
} else { // Sep-Dec
hybrid[i] = hasUkHistory ? ukWeights[i] : peWeights[i];
}
}
// Normalize
const sum = hybrid.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
return sum > 0 ? hybrid.map(w => w / sum) : peWeights;
};
const globalWeights = isUkOnly
? getHybridWeights(panEuData2025, data2025.filter(r => r.customer === 'Amazon UK'))
: panEuWeights;
// Map 2025 data by ASIN for quick access
const dataByAsin2025 = new Map<string, SalesRecord[]>();
@@ -1568,13 +1599,23 @@ export const calculateForecastViewData = (
const identifier = fc.asin.toUpperCase();
const meta = asinMetadata.get(identifier);
// 1. Determine weights (Product specific or global backup)
// 2. Determine weights for this ASIN
const productRecords2025 = dataByAsin2025.get(identifier) || [];
const weights = productRecords2025.length > 0 ? getWeights(productRecords2025) : globalWeights;
let productWeights = globalWeights;
// 2. Build monthly points
if (productRecords2025.length > 0) {
if (isUkOnly) {
const peProd = productRecords2025.filter(r => PAN_EU_COUNTRIES.includes(r.customer));
const ukProd = productRecords2025.filter(r => r.customer === 'Amazon UK');
productWeights = getHybridWeights(peProd.length > 0 ? peProd : panEuData2025, ukProd);
} else {
productWeights = getWeights(productRecords2025);
}
}
// 3. Build monthly points
const monthlyData: MonthlyForecastPoint[] = MONTH_ORDER.map((m, idx) => {
const forecastUnits = Math.round(fc.annualForecast * weights[idx]);
const forecastUnits = Math.round(fc.annualForecast * productWeights[idx]);
const actualUnits = actuals2026.get(identifier)?.get(m) || 0;
return {
month: m,