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feat: simplify verdict to winner/unsuccessful with >50% threshold

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- winner if posterior probability > 50%, unsuccessful otherwise
- Removes inconclusive — binary outcome based on Bayesian signal
- Label "Loser" renamed to "Unsuccessful"
- Updated all stored experiment verdicts in DB

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Christian Vidal Wolf
2026-03-10 13:47:01 +01:00
co-authored by Claude Sonnet 4.6
parent 127fa9c279
commit 2363982144
3 changed files with 7 additions and 8 deletions
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services/experimentAnalysis.ts
+2 -3
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@@ -435,9 +435,8 @@ export function computeVerdict(
const prob = result.posterior_prob_positive;
if (prob >= 0.90) return { verdict: 'winner', probability: prob };
if (prob <= 0.10) return { verdict: 'loser', probability: prob };
return { verdict: 'inconclusive', probability: prob };
if (prob > 0.50) return { verdict: 'winner', probability: prob };
return { verdict: 'loser', probability: prob };
}
// ============ Counterfactual Time Series ============
services/experiments.ts
+2 -2
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@@ -264,8 +264,8 @@ export const getVerdictColor = (verdict?: ExperimentVerdict): string => {
export const getVerdictLabel = (verdict?: ExperimentVerdict): string => {
switch (verdict) {
case 'winner': return 'Winner';
case 'loser': return 'Loser';
case 'inconclusive': return 'Inconclusive';
case 'loser': return 'Unsuccessful';
case 'inconclusive': return 'Unsuccessful';
default: return 'Pending';
}
};